Trust in Prophecy

March 27th, 2012   by   Andrew

Part of the series God: From Magic to Motivation

Is meaningful really just another word for predictable?

I’ve been distracted lately with an opportunity I can’t ignore. However, something else happened that I wanted to share. The question above is something I wrote in the margin of J. Peterson’s Maps of Meaning. In some passages, he seems to pretty much equate the two.

Four mature women stood in the street dividing up the houses and coordinating their campaign. When it was time for our house, the woman in a long beige coat approached our door. She had short sandy hair, fading from blonde to dignified grey. She was accompanied by another woman in a dark blue jacket. Her hair was longer, much more white, but still very sensible and refined.

When I answered the door they beamed warmly. The shorter, sandy haired one asked me if I knew what was in store for the future. She asked if I struggled with the tough questions of life and had found the answers. The other woman said nothing but looked dignified, thoughtful and confident.

I don’t mind talking to Jehovah’s Witnesses. I like observing the language they use and trying to guess at what parts are scripted from what parts aren’t. I usually try to return the beaming, welcoming, everything’s-gonna-be-all-right face to them and then translate for them their convictions of a magical God into personal, social and symbolic motivations. At the end I give them a business card and invite them to check out my websites. Fair trade?

Within a very short time, the sandy-haired woman had quoted for me, from her well-worn Bible, three underlined passages – one from the Psalms, one from Timothy, and then something from one of the Gospels. I noticed her hands were trembling lightly, so I tried to look all the more calm and reassuring for her.

When she was done, and still very much on script, I made a comment on the passage of time between the writing periods of the particular passages she quoted, and the further amount of time needed for the Bible to be put together and massaged into the narrative people read today. I was trying to lead the conversation towards how valuable it might be to study the motivations of the writers. It might make more sense to not trust the whole text as a whole text, but instead see if it says something valuable about how those writers were wrestling with things like imagery, meaning, social responsibilities and aesthetics. She cut me off to continue with her script.

“You know what makes me really know I can trust the Bible? The prophecies!”

She dived for another passage. I realized she didn’t come to my door to see the world differently. Confirmation and conviction got her here.

I’ve been reading Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan. Taleb is fascinated by just how awful we are at prediction, and interestingly, just how fixated, addicted we can be about prediction. Much of Taleb’s writing has to do with yelling at established powers, screaming at them and then making fun of them. Much of his message is do not sanctify past measures, past models, past stories and past data. In many areas of our lives, especially the social aspects of our lives, it creates a bloated sense of false security. And when it is well past the time to abandon our idols, things like denial, hubris and vanity are almost all too “natural” reactions. (Yes, we can be predictable… sometimes. That’s not always good…)

When I looked at the two women on my front step, I didn’t see a threat to the world. I saw two women clinging to what they felt was a predictable anchor – a model-making text that tied past, present and future into something that could be decipherable and trusted. And if everyone could just see it their way, maybe the world would be more predictable.

I tried again, but we found an impasse. Her God was quite literally tied to the books in her hands and she wasn’t going further. She was not ready to abandon her idols. She suggested I read something from one of her group’s publications. I suggested she join the conversation on my website, or on several other available websites. She told me she does not have internet in her house.

Not to be disheartened, I gave her and her friend each a card, and said that if any of the younger people in their group is struggling with these questions, I’d be willing to talk to them and start them on some remarkable journeys of discovery. And the whole time, I gave them that calm, reassuring smile. Everything is going to be fine if you could be willing to say, “I don’t know” about a few things.

It’s no wonder that some folk get uncomfortable around scientific talk. I think a lot of it is undecipherable for them. They don’t have the training, the culture or the background for it. What can they trust?

At the same time, I think I can understand the atheistic desire for scientific understandings of things. We are junkies for predictability, remember.

The combination of Taleb’s rants and the two gracious women at my front step got me wondering. Will atheists, when sufficiently tired of saying, “Just be rational!” (or read: just be consistent, or predictable), put more efforts into education than argument? When regular people get it that science is a prediction mechanism that eats and regenerates its own models, more people might want to take part. And if everyone just saw things your way, maybe then the world would be more predictable (… ahem…excuse me… something’s caught in my throat…)

Problem? Well yes, education takes a hell of a lot more effort than argument and anger. But at least with anger, you know you care about something.

If the idea of a supernatural God is just too preposterous, too unappealing to atheists, then some sort of aesthetically pleasing social mechanism should be developed to predictably, reliably inspire and foster social responsibility.

I have no idea what it would look like, but  I’d like to be part of something like that. It could be the most important work and accomplishment ever dreamed up.

If atheists want to really provoke people, maybe they should start going door-to-door, spreading invitations to whatever meaningful gatherings they think people should be taking part in. Alternatively, you can just leave people alone to sit and stare at their screens at home. Maybe that kind of culture will make a meaningful, predictable world too.

What do you think?

How should you go about changing your world into what it should be?

 


Sunday Videos on Anti-Fragility

March 11th, 2012   by   Andrew

I’m wandering away from my usual TED picks. Please bear with me. The video below still fits with the themes of this series, God: from Magic to Motivation

Have you ever received a package marked FRAGILE or HANDLE WITH CARE?

How did it make you behave?

Now, imagine getting a package that had a different label:

PLEASE MISHANDLE

Imagine something that adapts or flourishes when bumped around; it gets better through facing changes.

Nassim Taleb’s ideas on economics has a lesson that goes beyond our management of money – don’t use your worldview as a Procrustean Bed. How you face up to or deal with what you don’t know will almost always be more important than what you believe you know for sure.

(Audio isn’t great, but the video is worth it. Taleb is talking mostly about economics, but the lesson is still so blatant for how we think about every aspect of our lives. For me, anyway…)

Taleb uses examples from nature as anti-fragile environments. When left to develop without outside influence, natural environments can handle shocks or build resilient “hierarchies”. I’m worried there are too many examples now of how outside influences can expose and exploit the fragilities in natural systems. I look forward to reading Taleb’s next book.

What do you think?

- – -

Hero’s Journey vs. Procrustean Bed – a great post from a blogger that understands the difference between guide and doctrine. Instead of top-down normative thinking, play with bottom-up descriptive. The journey starts with each and every one of us as individuals, having to take individual, personal steps.

Not exactly related, but I saw these videos this week from Gotye. I’ve read Taleb doesn’t watch videos. That in itself fascinates me. I think the videos say something about the fragility of childhood and the brittleness of civilization. But, there is an anti-fragility in our ability to play with ideas. A modern, pop aesthetic is used to say things just as compelling as our ancient myths.


The Myth of Growth

February 19th, 2012   by   Andrew

Part of the series God: From Magic to Motivation

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
~ Albert Bartlett

Albert Bartlett has apparently been giving a similar lecture to the one above for most of his career. (note – the entire lecture is about 80 minutes, but the first 10 minutes summarizes his main point)

I think we tend to assume that growth is the desirable future. All of our economy and culture is now based on this assumption. Many children wake up  each day and embrace some technology before they embrace a parent.We live in a competitive environment, a technological world.

In The Empathic Civilization, Jeremy Rifkin spends some time explaining how the world economy is dependent upon fossil fuels. Rifkin suggests there is a range of predictions for when “peak oil” will occur (peak oil is a point when the maximum production of oil is reached). That range spans from the 197o all the way up to 2050 and well beyond. It may have already occurred for some countries, others may have more time, all depending on what measurements are used.

Many people have debunked the idea that there will be such a thing as peak oil production. Conventional oil production may have peaked but non-conventional production is affected by innovation, investment and some environmental concerns. Some have even called peak oil a myth.

The argument over peak oil will likely continue. I’m not really interested in the argument, and I admit I’m probably too ignorant to have an opinion that says anything useful about the issue. If anything though, I think the argument itself can tell us something about how people face things like the myth of growth. Some people see growth, and resources, as something that can be assumed. Others are not so sure.

To be clear, I am more interested in this inability to understand a simple mathematical function and its implications. I am reminded of this quote from A.N. Whitehead:

The major advances in civilization are processes which all but wreck the societies in which they occur.

Do you think growth is a myth?

Do you think the general public’s inability to understand the exponential function is a shortcoming, and should we do anything about it?

- – -

A somewhat-related post from Stephen Hren- My Decade of Being “Peak Oil Aware”


The Narrative Fallacy Revisited

February 19th, 2012   by   Andrew

Part of the series God: From Magic to Motivation

I started the last post with this quote:

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
~ Albert Bartlett

Nassim Taleb has identified a similar but more general shortcoming in the human race:

We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible; we scorn the abstract. Everything good (aesthetics, ethics) and wrong (Fooled by Randomness) with us seems to flow from it.

Historically, we have tried to use things such as narratives to explain abstract ideas. Arguments have been made that religious stories should be understood metaphorically and not literally, for example. Such arguments have not always been convincing to the larger audience.

I’ve had many students that were not turned on by math. It can be a real struggle to get them interested. Some of the first advice I ever got as a teacher was something like, “Keep it visual, keep it hands-on, and try to connect it to something in your student’s world.” In other words, serve the shortcoming.

At this time in our growth, however, I think there is something emerging that seems to directly fight the shortcomings that Bartlett and Taleb identify. There is a group of people that  favor the abstract and scorn the narrated. I don’t know what this group thinks of the myth of growth, but they might have new and interesting solutions to the problems growth can bring, and the problems of religion too.

Lawrence Krauss, in a discussion panel on a radio show, said that some research suggests, “the only way to really change people’s minds is to confront them directly with their wrong misconceptions, and lead them to an internal contradiction so that they discover that for themselves.”  (I don’t remember whose link I followed, but thank you!)

This is a tough choice, to perpetually face up to what’s wrong, internally and socially, but people are making this choice. People are trying to lead their lives by willingly facing up to contradiction, inconsistency and personal inability. I think people are consciously choosing to fight the narrative fallacy, and deliberately choosing the hard, slow road of rational thought as an “aesthetic” (guiding principles for the appreciation of things like beauty and ethics).

In an earlier post, I tried to make a fun, rough, short list of possible tenets for this supposed “new worldview”. This time I think I want to put them in the form of questions. Do you try to live by any of these “new aesthetics”? *

Do you like to measure things? Do you trust numerical data over anecdotal data, and even try to consciously maintain skepticism over anecdotal evidence for things?

Do you think having multiple sources of information is better than having one source of information? Are you skeptical of authoritative sources unless they have been rigorously tested?

Do you scorn supernatural explanations and even have an emotional reaction against them (They’re not even wrong)? Do you favor rational processes and have an emotional appreciation for them? (I think Taleb once said of Dawkins’ The Selfish Gene that it read like mathematics. He was complimenting Dawkins on the elegance of the writing.)

Have you ever changed your mind on something because of logical conclusions? Do you value rationalism, even at the high cost of letting go of some personal motivations?

Do you believe competence should be the measure of vocational positions and social positions?

Not everyone does hold to these kinds of views, or at least cannot consistently. Some are trying to, though.

What do you think?

- – -

* I don’t really think this is ‘new’ but I think it can be thought of as an aesthetic. I’m trying to suggest a significant number of people do share these values now, making them a shared, collective commitment to act in a certain way.

Link to the radio program: Can Science shape Human Values? And Should it? with Lawrence Krauss, Sam Harris, Steven Pinker, Simon Blackburn


God: From Magic to Motivation

January 8th, 2012   by   Andrew

I have a new series of posts in mind.

Nassim Taleb gave some advice to a friend. I am borrowing that advice. He recommended reading Karen Armstrong’s A History of God. (I am also borrowing the actual book; my parents had a copy. Thanks again.)

She understands that religion is mostly an emotional-aesthetic commitment and one that is shared with other people; it becomes a collective commitment. It is not about belief, but about trust. It is not a desire to be fooled by randomness by seeing false patterns (or, as she explains in her Great Transformation, it ceased to be so at some point in the sixth century BC). I am ashamed to say that I was initially reluctant to start reading it because she was not an academic/dropped out of an academic program –not realizing that it is precisely because she is not an academic that there is no single fake bone in her work. I felt guilty and silly at my neglect: the book had been staring at me since 1994. And there is this nagging feeling: How many other people have I ignored based on the same idiotic criterion? (source, #81)

From the jacket of her book:

Any particular idea of God must – if it is to survive – work for the people who develop it. Ideas of God change when they cease to be effective. The concept of a personal God who behaves like a larger version of ourselves was suited to mankind at a certain stage but no longer works for an increasing number of people. Understanding the ever-changing ideas of God in the past and their relevance and usefulness in their time is a way to begin the search for a new concept for the twenty-first century. Such a development is virtually inevitable, because it is a natural aspect of our humanity to seek a symbol for the ineffable reality that is universally perceived.

I think this new concept of God doesn’t need to rely on superstition or on the supernatural. I don’t even think this symbol, however we point at it, needs to be given agency or authority. And if we do it right, I think we will be able to test it.

It’s actually an old concept, something we’ve been wrestling with since we’ve become conscious of our motivations.

Here are some ideas and titles I’m working on:

God: From Magic to Motivation

My Recent Empathy Fail

Stigma and Introspection

A Brief History of God, and Possibly, Motivation – a look at words and meaning

Religion as (Cultural) Redundancy, and all the more important because of it!
Part 1 – Multiple Conservatives, the Dangers of Optimizing
Part 2 – Separating Church and State, Separating Hero and Nanny

Burqa, Panentheism, Responsibility – an examination of what has implications for our behaviour

Can we Do without Religon? – a look at a Jared Diamond talk

The Myth of Violence - TED talk with Steven Pinker

Wikipedia Shuts Down their English Site, and Vain Denials of the New Reality

Karen Armstrongs Elusive, Stubborn Meme – Three ideas from the book A History of God

Obfuscation

Implications, Relationships, Symbolism

Marvin the Android (from the HHGtotheG), and Being Smart Enough to Pick your Programming

Myth as Reinforcing Critical Thinking – Inspired by Dale McGowan’s family and Santa Claus

William Lane Craig Confirms My God

Science as an Emotional-Aesthetic Commitment
Part 1 – Rationalism as Religion – first thoughts
Par 2 – The Tenets of Rationalism: At First Glimpse
Part 3 – The Narrative Fallacy Revisited 

Skepticism and Associated Learning – a look at how we manage Patternicity

The Myth of Growth – The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function

Ultimate Complexity and Cultural Regeneration – I’ve been Reading Shantaram

Texting, the Literal Written Word, RElationships, “Pron”

Efficient Signalling
Part 1 – Shantaram and Indian Head Wiggles
Part 2 – Signalling as Expressing Motivation, and the Role of Story

The Deadau5 lesson on Religion’s Future

A New Ataraxia  - the inner peace from the skeptical suspension of belief and disbelief, or, not filling holes with ideas just to say the holes are filled.

What do you think?

- – -

(Note: I think I’m developing a potentially unhealthy bro-crush for Nassim Taleb. I want to write a song based on his ideas. Do you know the song “Synchronicity” by The Police? I want to find a karaoke version and put over-top of it a tongue-in-cheek ditty called “Platonicity”  or maybe “Patternicity”… any ideas or help with lines would be appreciated…)


The Narrative Fallacy

November 25th, 2011   by   Andrew

Supplemental Conclusion to the series Myths and Dragons

The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan

Whenever you want to be sure of something, it’s good to look at the evidence. Whenever you think you have something figured out, it’s good to think about what you don’t know.

In this series, I’ve been trying to look at reality as a place that resembles story rather than a place of objects. I do believe we put together the moments of our lives as though they are stories. However, it is important to think about the consequences of this attitude that can’t be seen immediately.

With hindsight, many things that happen to us look like stories. One event may follow after another and progress to what seems like a decision point, a resolution, or maybe even a punchline. We make a pattern out of what we have available. We find a lesson to live by. And then we get on with the next moment of living.

I think the world is crying for a new story. Our “impressions of understanding” don’t seem to be answering the problems of the world right now. We can’t seem to get our stories straight, but we still feel a need to do something, to act.

Nassim Taleb is an investor and a writer. He is not an economist.  According to his site, he likes to think of books as “friends”. Apparently he is an avid re-reader of the stories that have marked him in some way. His influences seem to be mostly European and contemporary (well, last 100 years or so). I wonder what he thinks of mythology. I’d like to know what he thinks of the Hero’s Journey and the changes it has gone through over the eras. The exploratory hero is always facing the incompleteness of the “impressions of understanding” that surround him or her.

Would it be fair to make a comparison between “Black Swans” and “dragons“? There are some significant similarities, besides the long necks. Both seem unforeseeable. Both upset our understandings of realities. Neither were thought to exist at all, until they were discovered. When found, there is a scramble to study them or make them fit into our understanding.

Nassim suggests we need to be able to live with Black Swans, find systems that can hold up when these unforeseen creatures appear. I would love to hear his thoughts on How to Train your Dragon. That is, if he has time for something as common as an animated kids film by Dreamworks. If recent movies can teach us anything, it seems like we are trying to find ways to live with our dragons, too. Or at least prepare kids these days to do so.

I think there is an important lesson in the narrative fallacy. Having our story straight doesn’t mean we have it right. That’s not the purpose of story. Having our story straight means we can act. However, we must still take responsibility for our actions. And we must always keep in mind the dark things in flight around us. They can descend upon us at any time and change everything we think we know.

I think I’ve read a story or two about that once…

What do you think?